A data-driven look at Ohio sports

Sometimes its hard to see past the “smartest-guys-in-the-room” vibe the Tribe’s front office gives off. Case in point? When everyone, from the team’s manager to the casual observer, believes the Indians need additional offensive firepower to compete with Detroit and Chicago for the AL Central, Cleveland’s leadership swims upstream and deals its top two pitching prospects for another pitcher and not a middle-of-the-order bat.

And when asked about it, Cleveland president Mark Shapiro breaks out the corporate speak on Twitter and tells fans the deal was a “rare and unique opportunity to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter with multiple years of control.”

Read: This guy is good value. Also read: This trade isn’t about 2011.

When reviewing the trade from a short-term perspective, ESPN’s Keith Law nails it.

“The main problem for Cleveland here is that it is incorrectly evaluating its own team…Since a fluky 30-15 start…Cleveland is 23-36 and has been outscored by 77 runs in that span — that is, it has been outscored by over a run and a quarter per game. Superman isn’t going to close that gap, and while there are things to like about Ubaldo Jimenez, Superman he ain’t.”

True. Jimenez is not Superman. But his performance and WAR tied to salary the two previous seasons would have cost the Indians $25 million per season on the free agent market. Even his lackluster 2011 would cost Cleveland around $11 million. In 2012 and 2013 Jimenez will cost Cleveland $4.2 million and $5.75 million respectively. That’s good value. And that’s important given the Indians nearly non-existent track record in ponying up for talent with the Dolan’s limited budget.

But another look at the trade shows something else - Cleveland will have Jimenez, Fausto Carmona, and Justin Masterson under contract through 2013. They will also have Travis Hafner, Asdrubal Carbrera, and Shin-Soo Choo tied up through 2013. That’s a strong nucleus. Alex White and Drew Pomeranz, the two central prospects surrendered by the Tribe in the deal, may or may not be ready to contribute on a significant level in 2013. Throw in the developing Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, and a strong bullpen and Cleveland fully intends to begin contending now and for the next two full seasons. Perhaps that game-changing bat can come this winter.

Remember when J.J. Hickson and Zydrunas Ilgauskas were too steep a price to pay for Amare Stoudamire? And now the Cavs have Omri Casspi. My times have changed in Cleveland.

I’m not sure where it all came off the rails with Hickson, but his inconsistency was maddening and more and more the effort was not there on defense. Hickson is not a smooth and fluid ballplayer. He has to work hard to get his shot and his value was in offensive rebounds and hustle around the basket. If he’s dogging it, he’s just taking up space - preventing others from getting to the rim and a clear liability on defense. When he was on the floor, the Cavs surrendered an additional 6.8 points per 100 possessions. In an increasingly numbers-driven basketball world, negative stats like this can be crippling. Increasingly so for a guy with a body built to defend in the NBA.

He still has the potential to be a very good player in the NBA, particularly if the effort and attention is there. Take nothing away from his skills but its clear he was not ready for the post-LeBron era and the additional responsibility that came with it.

Cavs fans aren’t necessarily disappointed in the Hickson trade because of what they lost but in not understanding what they’ve gained. Casspi remains a relatively unknown quantity aside from his place in history as the first Israeli-born player in the NBA. According to John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating), Casspi’s PER of 11.76 is less than Hickson’s slightly above average 15.67 (an average player in the NBA gets a 15.00 and Dirk Nowitzki rates a 23.52). Even with the conditional first-rounder thrown in, this trade still favors the Kings.

But this trade was not based on past performance. Casspi projects as a solid starting small forward in the NBA and that was not going to happen in Sacramento with the majority of the possessions going to Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Marcus Thorton. The thinking is Casspi is on the cusp of breaking out and becoming a 16-8-type guy from the small forward position. Given the Cavs were outproduced at the SF position by 6.6 points (16.6 PER for opponents vs 10.0 PER for Cleveland), the loss of production from Hickson should be mitigated with the play of Tristan Thompson at PF and Omri Casspi at SF. Even average performances from the two should compensate for the marginal value of J.J. Hickson.

The All-Star discussion in baseball is just plain stupid. Without even addressing the silliness of the game itself and its implications on World Series home-field advantage, we should accept the fact that the fans will not select an optimal roster for both the American and National Leagues and rather opt for seeing the players they want to see. Its their perogative and I’m fine with it. There is no guarantee the baseball cognoscenti will get it right either, especially with the differing opinions between traditional baseball minds and statistically-driven sabermetric crowd. And I’m not going into that debate here.

But after ruminating on how useless the entire discussion has become, I stumbled across an article that at least attempts to offer an intelligent discussion on Who is An All-Star? The article, from Basement-Dwellers.com (a blog I just discovered today and highly recommend for Reds fans) three potential ways to view the All-Star selection: true overall talent, previous 162-game performance, or first-half performance. What’s interesting about the analysis is how infrequently the different methods provide that same all-star at the same positions.

In the American League: Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, and Curtis Granderson could be considered unanimous All-Stars. In the National League, its Matt Holiday. In only one scenario, the National League previous 162-game method does an Indians or Reds player make the cut - Joey Votto’s previous 162 game performance exceeds that of Albert Pujols in terms of pure talent and Prince Fielders first half of 2011.

Despite what feels like drastically opposite starts, the Indians and Reds have similar playoff prospects as the season approaches the All-Star Game break. Cleveland’s pleasantly suprising quick start has the Tribe perched atop the AL Central with a 45-38 record and slim leads over the Tigers and White Sox. Cincinnati’s frustrating mediocrity has them at 43-43 and in fourth place in the NL Central but only three games behind the leading St. Louis Cardinals. According to the compelling and data-rich site Cool Standings, both the Indians and Reds can be considered contenders for their respective division titles.

The Indians have a 47.1% chance of winning the division. Thanks to the money-loaded AL East, the Wild Card is all but certain to come from that division leaving the Indians with the Central Division title as the main route to the playoffs. And with 38 games against Chicago, Detroit, and Minnesota remaining on the schedule, the Indians sit in the drivers seat for what should be an exciting run to October. While it may seem obvious, one thing working for the Indians is their ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Between the Indians, Tigers, and White Sox, only the Indians are the only team of that plus-.500 group that has given up fewer runs than they’ve scored.

The Reds, despite their fourth-place position, still have a 27.9% chance of reaching the postseason. Four teams have an approximate 25% chance of winning the NL Central, so despite the troubling start, the Reds are far from out of the race. A single six or seven-game winning streak could deliver the division. Simiar to the AL, the NL wildcard will most likely come from the East. With 50 of its remaining 76 games to be played against division rivals, the Reds have a tremendous opportunity to take control of the division in the second half of the season. Cincinnati and St. Louis seem to be the only two teams in the divisional race that will be able to consistently topple their opponents as both Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are scoring and giving up runs at a similar clip.

For both Ohio teams, the division races are winnable.

Hockey’s return from the South to Winnipeg is not just good for Canada and their efforts to reclaim their national pastime. It’s also potentially good news for the Columbus Blue Jackets. As talk about NHL realignment intensifies, most Blue Jackets fans feel a move to the Eastern Conference could be a much needed boost to a franchise struggling to keep its fans and attract revenues.

But, in typical hockey fashion, NHL brass is now looking for a fix to a problem it created. It’s never been about alignment of the conferences and divisional structure (though fixing that won’t hurt). It’s the scheduling formula - and it’s horrible.

After the 2004-2005 lockout, the NHL realigned into its current two conference, six division structure. Initially, teams played division foes eight times, other conference rivals four times each, and 10 remaining games against two of the three divisions. In 2008-2009 hockey reduced the division games to six against each rival and added 8 games against the other conference to ensure every team played each other at least once. The initial realignment proposed to cut down on travel expenses - but for Columbus, this meant playing only playing 18 of its 82 games (22%) against opponents in the Eastern time zone. And when the league shifted to its current schedule format, Columbus did add eight Eastern time zone games bringing the total to 24 of 82 games (30%). And while the Jackets do now play 26 games (30%) of its games in the Central time zone compared to 32 games (40%) prior to the change, Columbus still plays 32 games (40%) against teams in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. For a team in Ohio, this is silly for television purposes, establishment of geographic rivals, fan away-game travel, and most important, general fan interest.

Traditional hockey cities and geographical rivals show up at Nationwide Arena once every two years while teams like the Sharks, Ducks, and Coyotes come to visit three times in a single season. Nothing against those cities out West, but most fans, and more specifically Ohio hockey fans, have little interest in seeing those teams. Ohio fans grew up around the Red Wings, Penguins, Sabres, and Maple Leafs, not the Disney-esque newbies on the other side of the country. They simply don’t see enough of what they would consider hockey teams they could relate to and establish a rooting interest for or against them. Apathy towards many Columbus opponents abounds. They rarely interact with fans other than Red Wings and Penguins fans, and they rarely play the Penguins!

Word is the NHL will be realigning around time zones, creating a larger 16-team Eastern Conference full of teams from the Eastern time zone while creating a 14-team Western Conference with teams from outside the Eastern time zone. Using the current formula, Columbus would only play 16 games (20%) against teams from the Mountain and Pacific time zones. Playing another 10 games (12%) against teams in the Central leaves the other 56 games (68%) to be played in the Eastern time zone. That feels right for a team from Ohio.

Jake Delhomme sucks. The Browns offense looks like a car spinning its wheels in the snow with him under center. Run up the middle with Hillis? It won’t work. Defense has nine in the box. Drop back and throw? The secondary can sit in a zone and wait for the underneath. All this energy expended. And we’re going nowhere.

For many Browns fans the clear cut choice to start at quarterback is Colt McCoy. I’m not so sure. This doesn’t mean Browns fans shouldn’t be excited about McCoy. He has the potential to be a very good quarterback and seems to have all the intangibles necessary to succeed in the NFL. But right now, he’s not much better than Seneca Wallace. But if a rookie can perform on-par with an established NFL veteran, then the Browns should be excited.

Overall, the quarterback play has been questionable for the Browns this season and likely the main reason the team is 5-7 and not 7-5 (however, this would require a different analysis). But Seneca Wallace should be the starting quarterback. He gives Cleveland the best chance to win. And Mangini’s insistence on playing Jake Delhomme can’t be rooted in anything more than giving the veteran quarterback a final shot. Let me explain.

Three statistical methods can be used to evaluate quarterback performance - the traditional NFL quarterback rating, a statistical method referred to in Wages of Wins, and another method developed by Wayne Winston in the book Mathletics. Editors Note: If you want to learn more about the specifics of those methods, I suggest you check out those books.

According to the numbers, Jake Delhomme shouldn’t not be allowed anywhere near the Browns offense and Wallace and McCoy are much closer in terms of performance than I think most believe.

First, its clear Delhomme under performs regardless of the analysis. So going forward, he isn’t even a consideration and Mangini should wise up and realize his indecision at quarterback (this should eerily familiar to both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn) hurts the team.

Colt McCoy scores well because the Browns eat up more yardage when he plays quarterback. He simply does more with the same number of throws and avoids the catastrophic mistake. Wallace doesn’t generate the total yardage that McCoy generates, but on average, Wallace and McCoy deliver about 11-12 yards per completion and about 7 or so yards per pass attempt.

So, why start Wallace if you’re getting similar production from McCoy? He is a veteran. The plan was to keep McCoy on the sidelines. And while injuries pressed him into service far sooner than I think the Browns wanted, and while the results have been generally positive, McCoy remains a rookie. And we don’t want him hurt.

Cleveland heads down to New Orleans (9-1) and San Antonio (9-1), two of the hottest teams in the NBA. This might get ugly. The Cavs 5-5 record hasn’t exactly come against some of the NBA’s better teams. Removing the Celtics and Hawks games from consideration, the Cavs are just 4-4 against teams with a combined 20-45 record. This weekend will tell us a lot about this team.

Ohio State faces a no-win situation in Iowa City on Saturday. Iowa is a good team, but No. 20 in the BCS and 4-2 in the Big Ten. A win doesn’t necessarily boost the Buckeyes in the BCS standings and the Hawkeyes are very capable of beating the Buckeyes - especially at home. Plus, Ohio State doesn’t control their own destiny in the Big Ten. Buckeyes, tread carefully here.

The Browns, fresh from their stinging 26-20 OT loss to the Jets head to Florida to square off with the 5-4 Jaguars. The most notable matchup in this game pits Jacksonville’s porous defense (21.4% DVOA ranks 29 out of 32 teams) against the Browns offense is slightly above average (6.1% OVOA ranks 17 out of 32). If the Browns can make some plays in the passing game, they should return home with their third win in four games.

Cincinnati hosts the Bills in what can only be described as a desperation game for the Bengals. Losing to Buffalo at home might just be the game that ensures Marvin Lewis’s departure. Statistically, Cincinnati is much better than their record and should realistically be 5-4 or 4-5 if they could eliminate painful turnovers.

Columbus winds up a Western swing with at tough back-to-back at Anaheim(10-8-3, 23 pts) and San Jose (9-5-4, 22 pts). Columbus at 10-6-0 and 20 points has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, in order to keep pace in the Western Conference, the Jackets must take no less than two points this weekend.

The No. 4 Buckeye hoops hosts North Carolina Wilmington Saturday night. This team looks good so far this season. Let’s hope they can keep their edge after the big win at Florida earlier in the week.