Aggressive play would help Browns find wins
Even though Brian Burke covers the Washington Redskins for the Washington Post, his recent analysis of the Washington Redskins’ offensive problems could be substituted wholesale to describe the Cleveland Browns. It’s sound advice for any reasonable Browns fans frustrated with their own offense: “it’s not about systems, play-calling, or injuries. Even those things do matter, the heart of any sport is about having players better than the other team.”
Bruke goes on to describe how Mike Shanahan’s offense looks much better with John Elway and Terrell Davis instead of John Beck and Jabbar Gaffney. The same could be said about the Browns and their version of the West Coast Offense - Colt McCoy, Ben Watson, and Chris Ogbonnaya simply don’t compare to Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, and Roger Craig. It’s hard to realize the vision of the West Coast Offense when you’re seeing it in its most primitive form.
But what to do when managing from such a talent disadvantage? Burke suggests the Redskins get more aggressive on offense - pass more, jump routes on defense, ignore fourth down conventional wisdom, run trick plays, and utilize the onside kick. Burke claims that by forgoing the typical risk mitigation approach taken by most football coaches and taking chances, coaches can introduce additional variance into the game and provide the underdog with increased opportunities to make big plays and increase scoring output. Burke does touch on the downside of such a strategy, but when your getting beat, and getting beat handily, the tried and true approach has already demonstrated its ineffectiveness.
Last season, Eric Mangini and the Browns coaching staff found a way to best the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots in consecutive games (a bye week sat between the two wins) by employing a strategy of fake punts, aggressive defense, and imaginative play-calling. Mangini also implemented a conservative game plan focused on reducing possessions per team. By reducing possessions, the inventive plays thus had a larger impact on the game and the Browns chance at winning.
Contrast last season with the current approach by Pat Shurmur - repetitive play-calling, a bend-but-don’t-break defensive philosophy, and absolutely nothing in the way of the unexpected (unless a lateral screen pass to Greg Little on 3rd and 1 counts as imagination). Only when the game is completely out of hand does the offense start looking down field. And if increasing variance is a way to mitigate the talent disparity, an interception 20 or 25-yards down-field can’t be any worse than a bad punt. And the Browns have been doing plenty of punting lately.
Mangini turned a 2-or-3-win team into a 5-win team last season. After a decent 2011 draft that did provide some talent upgrades on defense, Shurmur is keeping a 5-win team at a 5-win level. Perhaps a bit of risk taking on the lakefront could push this team to seven or eight win territory and provide promise heading into 2012.
If you’re interested in a detailed statistical breakdown on how more aggressive play-calling can improve your chances of winning, check out a breakdown over at Advanced NFL Stats. In fact, someone forward it to Shurmur while you’re at it.
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